Peak coal this year? by Dave Cohen (EB)

The breakdown of economic expansion in the 21st century
Dave Cohen, Decline of the empire (EB)
My thesis is that global economic expansion has broken down, and where there are pockets of economic growth as in China or Brazil, it is unlikely that growth will continue for much longer. (I am thinking on decadal scales.) Clearly this is a subject for a book, whereas today I am going to outline why this thesis is credible in a blog post.

Peak oil — Where do we stand?
Dave Cohen, Decline of the Empire

The question thus becomes: did world conventional oil production peak in mid-2008 or are we looking at a local maxima (high point) in production that may be surpassed in the future? To answer this question, we must first understand what this production graph is telling us.

Dave Cohen, I Consume, Therefore I Am (EB)

Regarding our Fate here in the United States, the writing was on the wall when Americans, actual living & breathing human beings, were labeled and treated as units of consumption. Officially, we are consumers. Apparently, Americans are evaluated solely on whether they are spending enough money. Consuming boosts Gross Domestic Product, and GDP is the only thing that counts. It doesn't matter whether you've got the money or not. The virtue of Thrift, of living within your means, got tossed out the window a long, long time ago.

Dave Cohen on Obama's proposed infrastructure spending

Rearranging the Deck Chairs (original)

It includes the sort of criticism you would expect from those who take Peak Oil seriously -- the plan is an stupid expenditure on the current American way of life, instead of doing something to restore a transportation system that will be viable in a post-Peak era.

Items of Interest, 24 June 2010

Daniel Larison, McChrystal and Afghanistan
Sean Scallon, Doesn’t BP have enough corporate spokespersons?
John Willson, Why I am a Conservative

Zenit:
Church in Japan Notes Falling Numbers
What to Do About Pornography (Part 1)
Saintly Founder Lived Charity to the Extreme
Papal Homily During Visit to Dominican Cloister

Energy Bulletin:
Eat less meat, eat better meat (original)

Ralph Loglisci, Civil Eats

The list of Meatless Monday supporters continues to grow across the globe, and surprisingly to some, many of the latest enthusiasts make their living either cooking meat, such as chef Mario Batali or producing it, like rancher Nicolette Hahn Niman. What makes Meatless Monday so successful is its simple and inclusive message which promotes moderation with the goal of improving public health and the health of the planet.

Peak oil — a crisis postponed (original)
Dave Cohen, Decline of the Empire

As the global economy goes, so goes oil demand. If the outlook for the global economy is not so good, oil consumption will stagnate or increase very slowly. If oil demand grows slowly or not at all, consumption will remain below the world's productive capacity, as measured in millions of barrels-per-day. If oil demand remains below the available supply, there will be no oil price shock.

Counterpunch:
Gareth Porter, Why McChrystal Did Obama a Big Favor
Paul Craig Roberts, Is Petraeus McChrystal's Replacement or Obama's?
Alan Farago, The Forty Year War on the Environment

Items of Interest, 15 June 2010

Daniel Larison, Obviously, Iran Would Retaliate Against U.S. Attacks
Rod Dreher, Life according to Seventeen magazine and Technology in the classroom goes bust
Michael Shedlock, Stephen Roach says China's Housing Boom is Not a Bubble; I say "Nonsense"

The Spearhead:
Welmer: Girls Display Entitlement in Fight With Cop, Feminist Actress Beats Boy at Mall,
SPLICE — Hollywood is Finally Getting it Right!

Energy Bulletin:
Peak water? (original)

Lakis Polycarpou, Columbia University Water Center

In the last few years, scientists have begun to look at whether consumption of renewable resources follows Hubbert’s model. So how useful is the concept of “peak water”?

More accidents await with President Obama’s errant energy policies (original)

Brent Blackwelder, the Daly News

President Obama triumphantly entered office with the popular promise of moving the United States to a cleaner energy basis, but his actions to date, along with those of the Congress, have promoted two types of dangerous energy developments: off-shore oil drilling and nuclear reactors. Nuclear expert Harvey Wasserman highlighted the dual dangers by noting, “As BP’s ghastly gusher assaults the Gulf of Mexico, a tornado has forced a shutdown of the Fermi 2 atomic reactor at the site of a 1966 melt-down that nearly irradiated the entire Great Lakes Region.”

The facts of life (original)

Dave Cohen, Decline of the Empire

Counterpunch:
Mike Whitney, The Next Housing Crisis
Fred Gardner, Helen Thomas' Watergate Scoop

Asia Times:
The Pentagon strikes it rich
The motive of the United States Department of Defense in using old data to publicize the potential US$1 trillion in mineral riches in Afghanistan's war-ravaged land is under scrutiny. Given increasingly negative news from the counter-insurgency campaign, the headline-generating figure could reverse growing public sentiment that the war is not worth the cost. - Jim Lobe

China not yet a miracle
Visitors to China impressed by its emergence as a modern power can too easily overlook the continuing extent of subsistence farming, a dependence on low-value-added manufacturing and an absence of innovation. Nor can any country progress without deep crises and severe setbacks, as the United States can attest. - Benjamin A Shobert

China's wind power has faulty connection
With China requiring increasing amounts of imported coal and oil to drive its economic growth, the country is encouraging the use of alternative energy, with wind power a favored sector. That has led to investment in wind farms outpacing the infrastructure for delivering their energy to consumers. - Ryan Rutkowski

McChrystal faces 'Iraq' moment
A double dose of bad news concerning the troop surges of the United States in Afghanistan suggests things are about to get worse for US General Stanley McChrystal, who faces a collapse of political support in line with an increase in unfavorable media coverage. The situation is painfully similar to that in Iraq in 2006, when support from US elites tanked following months of reports showing that Washington had lost control of the war. - Gareth Porter

When Will "Full" Employment Come Again?

Dave Cohen, Decline of the Empire

The most telling sign that the United States is well down the road to ruin is the jobs situation. I'm about to tell you some seriously depressing stuff, so get ready.

(original)

Washington, You Have Been Warned

Dave Cohen, Decline of the Empire

Two Brits are duking it out over the fate of the United States. Harvard historian Niall Ferguson, a Scot who believes that America's Imperial Magnificence is fading fast, fired the opening salvo in A Greek Crisis Is Coming To America...Financial Times editor Martin Wolf weighed in to counter what he calls Ferguson's "hysteria" in How to walk the fiscal tightrope that lies before us.

(original)

Bombs Away! by Dave Cohen (original)

Mr. Cohen links to the following: 20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon
Commentary: Which trigger will ignite the Great Depression II? by Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

Big Crash Coming?
Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA
In More Like A Depression Every Day, I described strong deflationary pressures in the American economy despite the Shock & Awe fiscal & monetary stimulus being applied. The flow of free money is supposed to counter deflation by boosting both asset values and government spending. Economist Nouriel Roubini, otherwise known as “Dr. Doom”, notes that this “wall of liquidity” is inflating asset values, not just in the United States, but all over the world.

The Mistakes Economists Make by Dave Cohen (archived at Energy Bulletin)

The New Gilded Age by Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA

My subject today is the grotesque wealth & income inequality that exists in the United States. I have dubbed our times the new Gilded Age, which was Mark Twain’s name for the post-Civil War period when “the rich wore diamonds and many others wore rags.” I could also have called it the “last” Gilded Age because our slowly disappearing Middle Class will never exist again as it once did.

The Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy

Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA

I am 53 years old, which makes me a post-World War II “Baby Boomer” (those born between 1946 and 1964). First off, I want to issue a blanket apology to younger cohorts (generations X & Y) for the excesses of my generation. No generation in the human history was given so large an opportunity to ravage the Earth through excess consumption, and Boomers did not squander that opportunity. No generation has adversely affected the welfare of future generations as the Boomers have. So much for Woodstock and the Age of Aquarius.

Dave Cohen, What's near at the tar sands?

What's new at the tar sands?
Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA / Energy Bulletin
It behooves us to keep track of what's going on at the tar sands in so far as the "official" story now states that well-being of the world's most voracious oil consumer depends on steadily rising synthetic crude output. A close look reveals that all is not well along the Athabasca River.

Tom Whipple, After the peak?

After the peak?
Tom Whipple, Falls Church News-Press
The world has never been to peak oil before and there are so many factors that will affect a world in oil depletion, it is difficult, or better yet nigh impossible, to paint a picture of what life will be like 10 or 20 years from now.

The perfect storm
Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA / Energy Bulletin
The former head of Saudi Arabian exploration & production, Sadad Al-Husseini, has told the world that he now believes that the current level of world oil production will likely never be exceeded.
published October 31, 2007.

Oil reserves over-inflated by 300bn barrels – al-Huseini
David Strahan, Last Oil Shock
The world’s proved reserves have been have been falsely puffed up by the inclusion of 300 billion barrels of speculative resources, according to the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, and this explains the industry’s inability to raise output despite soaring prices.
published October 30, 2007.

Peak oil - Oct 29
Staff, Energy Bulletin
'Oil production has peaked' according to al-Huseini (former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco)
China to reach peak oil production as early as 2015 says leading scholar in Beijing
“Requiem for Fossil Fuels” performed in NYC
Kunstler: Assumptions
Downloadable peak oil presentation
Kenneth Deffeyes on feedback loops
ODAC news
published October 29, 2007.