GAO releases peak oil report

GAO: U.S. needs a peak oil strategy
by U.S. Government Accountability Office

Click on the link to read highlights from the actual report. Editorial notes:

The complete 82-page report in PDF is currently posted at EV World (1.1 MB PDF)

The report PDF is also posted here (hat tip Rick Lakin)

The report has just been posted at GAO:
Full report
Abstract
Highlights

EV World also had a short article on the GAO report, saying:

It acknowledges three key facts: peak oil is real, no one is sure when it will occur and without consistent government policy that acknowledges its reality and plans for its eventuality, the United States, perhaps more than any other nation, will be the most seriously harmed economically.

The report, initiated at the request of Maryland Representative Roscoe Bartlett who has been the leading voice on Congress on the peak oil question, acknowledges that a decline in oil production, both conventional and unconventional, will occur within essentially one generation, likely sometime between now and 2040. The disparity in dates is attributed to the wide variance in the data and methodology used by various research entities from individuals like Dr. Colin Campbell and Professor Kenneth Deffeyes who see peak happening in the next few years to the USGS and Cambridge Research Associates who see a longer, but still historically brief window.

For more background, see The Peak Oil Crisis: The Studies by Tom Whipple. At the time, he predicted:

The GAO effort will almost certainly be the straightforward professional exercise we have come to expect from this organization. The study will probably acknowledge that world oil production will peak someday and the researchers, who work for the Congress, will do their best to give a balanced answer to questions of when production will peak and what might we do about it.

UPDATES:
New at The Oil Drum: thread on the GAO report

Coverage from UPI: GAO: Lack of clear policy on peak oil

From Dow Jones: US Auditor: Energy Dept Should Develop Plan For Peak Oil Era

Reaction from Stuart Staniford of The Oil Drum:

I think this report is real progress. It's an even-handed summary of the debate, recognizes that the issue is potentially very important, and says the US govt should be doing a lot more to reduce the uncertainties and respond despite the uncertainties. I think this is a huge improvement from the EIA AEO's and the like, which essentially have a "no worry" message. The message here is "Worry!" I also like that the various demand-side alternatives discussed are all ones worth discussing (no "rebuild the railroads"), and that the challenges to rapid implementation of any alternative are discussed in a reasonably balanced manner. I also liked the pervasive discussion of the fact that these things need to be thought of light of the global warming implications (they even used "global warming" instead of "climate change"!) I thought the arbitrage between food prices and gas prices implied by ethanol should have gotten more play, however.

This is much more important than the Hirsch report, because it's not a contractor-done "Opinion of the authors only" thing. A very credible piece of the government has just officially endorsed that this is a huge issue. (And thus that I haven't been throwing away my reputation for nothing these last two years, and I'm happy about that).

I don't endorse exactly where the center of gravity of the report is (My reading of the evidence is that we are more-or-less at peak already, but I also think adaptation is not going to be as hard as some people think). But despite that, just the legitimization of the debate is a big deal.

Associated Press has just picked up the story. It will now be published in multiple newspapers and news sites. It's already appeared at:
MSN
Houston Chronicle
Forbes
Business Week


Report: Gov't needs plan for oil peak
by Alan Zibel (AP)

The U.S. government is in need of a strategy to minimize potentially dire economic consequences after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline, the investigative arm of Congress said Thursday.

Though experts disagree about when daily oil output will reach its maximum level -- or whether they have done so already -- the Government Accountability Office said in a report that most studies have found oil production will reach a peak sometime between now and 2040.

The report warns that, as the world's largest oil consumer, the U.S. is vulnerable to significant economic troubles, brought about by rising prices, if a peak arrives and no technology exists to replace petroleum-based transportation fuels.
-BA

Coverage of the GAO peak oil report
by Staff

(includes a youtube clip of Matt Simmons)

Bartlett elaborates on GAO peak oil report
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, Energy Bulletin