Monday, July 12, 2010

What the haters celebrate

Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties
Ruy Teixeira, American Progress Action
Introduction and summary
(via EB)

The tectonic plates of American politics are shifting. A powerful concatenation of demographic forces is transforming the American electorate and reshaping both major political parties. And, as demographic trends continue, this transformation and reshaping will deepen. The Democratic Party will become even more dominated by the emerging constituencies that gave Barack Obama his historic 2008 victory, while the Republican Party will be forced to move toward the center to compete for these constituencies. As a result, modern conservatism is likely to lose its dominant place in the GOP.

The bulk of this paper provides a detailed analysis of the demographic shifts transforming the electorate. This analysis is followed by a brief discussion of the geographical dimension of these changes. It concludes by exploring the long-term implications of these changes for the parties.

Key findings on the electorate’s demographic transformation are examined below.Heavily Democratic minority voters (80 percent for Obama) increased their share of votes in U.S. presidential elections by 11 percentage points between 1988 and 2008, while the share of increasingly Democratic white college graduate voters rose 4 points. But the share of white working-class (not college-educated) voters, who have remained conservative in their orientation, has plummeted by 15 points.

That’s a pattern that’s repeated in state after state, helping send those states in a Democratic direction. In Pennsylvania, for example, the white working class declined by 25 points between 1988 and 2008, while white college graduates increased by 16 points and minorities by 8 points. And in Nevada, the white working class is down 24 points over the same time period, while minority voters are up an amazing 19 points and white college graduates by 4 points.

These trends will continue, and the United States will be majority-minority nation by 2042. By 2050, the country will be 54 percent minority as Latinos double from 15 percent to 30 percent of the population, Asian Americans increase from 5 percent to 9 percent, and African Americans move from 14 to 15 percent.

Kevin Drum, Demographics is Destiny
But there's more to the story than just this. As Teixeira says, "On social issues, Millennials support gay marriage, take race and gender equality as givens, are tolerant of religious and family diversity, have an open and positive attitude toward immigration, and generally display little interest in fighting over the divisive social issues of the past." That's bad news for the Republican Party, which has shown little willingness to soften its stand on cultural concerns like these — all of which are core hot button issues for its Tea Party base.

I remember we had a discussion about morality in a junior high English class. (There was another one, centered on Kohlberg, in senior year English.) We were discussing what it meant to be moral, immoral, and amoral -- can someone know that what they do is wrong and yet choose evil nonetheless? Are those who are "immoral" moral in their own way? Aren't they being sincere in following their own beliefs regarding good/evil, right/wrong?

In the vicious, reason has been subverted by appetite. They are blind to the authentic good because of a disordered appetite. They don't need to know what they are doing is wrong in order to be called vicious.

Is hate too strong of a world for those who are hostile to whites (especially men) who don't have the right beliefs, Anglo-American culture, and traditional morality?

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