Friday, February 16, 2007

Future shock: Asia is running out of gas

Future shock: Asia is running out of gas
By Alan Boyd

SYDNEY - When crude oil surged past US$70 a barrel in mid-2006, Southeast Asian governments were forced to confront an inconvenient truth that might almost have come from the hand of former US vice president Al Gore: income levels could not be sustained unless new energy sources were found, and quickly.

The World Bank has calculated that oil-import dependency trimmed as much as 1% off the region's gross domestic product last year, as higher production costs eroded export earnings, boosted freight overheads and inflated food prices.

Add in the threat posed by climate change, as well as the rising tide of diplomatic pressure for the Third World to meet emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol, and Southeast Asia's future shock of energy depletion has suddenly become all too real.

"Climate change clearly poses a major threat to the livelihoods and environments of the ASEAN region," Hans Verolme, director of the World Wild Fund for Nature's Global Climate Change Program, told the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Cebu, Philippines, last month.

"The most efficient and economic way to reduce oil dependence will be through a stronger regionwide effort on energy efficiency."

But how to do it?

Of the 10 emerging and developing countries within the ASEAN bloc, only Indonesia and Malaysia are relatively self-sufficient in crude oil - and that comfort zone will evaporate within two decades, along with most natural-gas supplies.


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