What the government controls best is border control/filtering incoming passengers & yet-uncancelled superspreader events (games). They messed that up.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020
The rest is largely ex post response lagging individual behavior.https://t.co/wl65RHvy0t
Peer review is often necessary but v. highly insufficient; gives cover to unrigorous crap. There are citation rings. Imagine passing a review on risk by an ignorant psych like @PTetlock who still doesn't know the difference betw probability & expectation or point estimate & EVT. https://t.co/PCF7t4qJYm
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020
No masks, no testing. But lockdown.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020
This is what happens when you panic too late. https://t.co/P2aGktcv0R
Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020
You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK "model". pic.twitter.com/yBk1AygMwN
No comments:
Post a Comment