Can There Be a Science of Complexity

Farmer is the archetype of the "science bullshitter" fellow in #Antifragile who needs a scientific model before riding a bicycle.
I compared Farmer's inability to work in finance to Fat Tony's talent: he knows how to operate in the absence of models.#Incerto https://t.co/3gpYPAWQ8b

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) November 27, 2020

WM Briggs on the Application of Benford's Law to This Year's Election Steal

Benford’s law is only useful in uncovering multiple and on-going instances of cheating. As in somebody consistently cooking financial books. Assuming the curiosities are cheats, it only took two instances to tip the balance.
https://t.co/KMqjttGW95

— William M Briggs (@FamedCelebrity) November 8, 2020

Taleb on the Application of Statistics

My latest with @nntaleb. As usual, it's a masterclass on logic and probability, this time as applied to the pandemic and its consequences for society, the economy and finance. https://t.co/suotiOoOXd

— Erik Schatzker (@ErikSchatzker) September 23, 2020

Against the Epidemiology Experts

Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://t.co/49heoLj0yV via @YouTube

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 4, 2020

Taleb's Newest

Friends,
Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping

Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks].https://t.co/880pOWk3DL

And remember the PDF is Freehttps://t.co/5JCWy84VU3

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 22, 2020

Another Piece on Taleb

Yves Smith summarizes the piece at Automatic Earth, before republishing it.

HITS THE SPOT:

"What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists & virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about."https://t.co/3ZYBlKefbe

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 17, 2020

The Only Man Who Has a Clue?

The Only Man Who Has a Clue by Raul Ilargi Meijer (ZeroHedge)

What the government controls best is border control/filtering incoming passengers & yet-uncancelled superspreader events (games). They messed that up.
The rest is largely ex post response lagging individual behavior.https://t.co/wl65RHvy0t

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020

Peer review is often necessary but v. highly insufficient; gives cover to unrigorous crap. There are citation rings. Imagine passing a review on risk by an ignorant psych like @PTetlock who still doesn't know the difference betw probability & expectation or point estimate & EVT. https://t.co/PCF7t4qJYm

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020

No masks, no testing. But lockdown.
This is what happens when you panic too late. https://t.co/P2aGktcv0R

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020

Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration.

You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK "model". pic.twitter.com/yBk1AygMwN

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2020

"Sure"

Controlling the narrative.

Post by University of California, Irvine.

The Politically Incorrect Truth About Same-Sex Parenting

California Catholic Daily: Is Father Sullins ready for the onslaught?