Sunday, March 01, 2009

John Robb, JOURNAL: The Stress Test

One useful way to look at D2 (the current global depression) is to view it as a stress test for nation-states. In other words: can nation-states adapt successfully to the twin pressures of the new global environment? Here's what I mean. Nation-states are now caught between two irresistible and strengthening forces:

1. A dominant, turbulent, and uncontrollable global super-network, that is pressuring/weakening/buffeting nation-states from above.
2. Super-empowered individuals/groups rising up from below that are ready to pounce on or exploit any demonstration of nation-state weakness.

So far, the vast majority of thinking re: the response to the stress test has been a revival of early 20th Century methods/theories of activist government. I'm fairly sure that this is a sterile response to the challenge.

In contrast, decentralization that both improves resilience and accelerates (parallelizes) innovation offers a greater chance of success. Nation-states that ease the process of decentralization will likely have both the easiest transition to the new fluid environment and the best long term prospects (wealth creation).

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